A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
